Wagner Wire Nation, Before we get to the value picks this week I need to get something off my chest. The war against DFS is starting to heat up. Politicians and Media are painting DFS as something it isn’t and States are starting to ban dfs. The Attorney General of New York, Eric Schneiderman ordered a cease and desist to DraftKings and FanDuel. He is a tool…see my Big 3 DFS Show colleague Al Walsh’s article here http://alwalshdfs.com/2015/11/eric-schneiderman-is-a-jerkoff/ The thing about these politicians is they are fine with having a State lottery and taking money from people that shouldn’t be playing in the first place for a contest that is 100% luck and with very little shot of winning. DFS is not the lottery. DFS requires skill to win regularly and is a hobby to most people. The thing that really stinks about the possibility of it going away is that DFS and Fantasy sports in general brings people together. I know one of my best friends has told me that he has been spending more time with his Dad than he has in a long time because they get together twice a week and go over lineups together. Furthermore, I have made several friends and got back in touch with others because of DFS. DFS is a community, I can’t see a bunch of junkies in a back alley in Vegas getting together to go over ways to pull a handle on a slot machine or chain smokers outside a liquor store going over the best number combinations for Keno. Those are not games of skill. So if you live in New York or somewhere else where the politicians are taking a break from worrying about real problems to stop all of us from having a good time go ahead and write your local and state representatives and tell them why you don’t want DFS to go away. On to the picks….
Blake Bortles $5,600 DK/$11,100 FDraft/$7,800 FD
Besides being one of my top values of the week at QB Blake is also one of my top plays at any price level. I think he should have a great fantasy day at Baltimore against their near league last pass defense. Bortles has really come in to his own in year two in the league and I love a stack with his top target Allen Robinson in this one. He is very cheap for the amount of points he has been producing. There should be plenty of points in this game because neither defense is very strong.
Kirk Cousins $5,200 DK/$10,000 FDraft/$6,500 FD
You Like That! I like Kirk in this spot mostly because he gets the Rob Ryan defense that has been beaten more than Bradley C beats all of his terrible buddies on FanDuel. See New York AG if this wasn’t a game of skill then Bradley C wouldn’t be able to beat his friends every week and almost be able to afford a PS4 with his over $350.00 won. But back to Kirk. Cousins is a below average QB so this is really only a gpp play but he is cheap and paired with Jordan Reed could end up having a pretty good day.
Joe Flacco $5,500.00 DK/$10,800 FDraft/$7,500 FD
While I like Bortles a ton in this game I also like Joe Flacco. The Jaguars pass D are no world beaters themselves and they get Flacco coming off a bye. I also like a stack with one of his targets that we will get to later in this column. Joe has quietly gone for over 20 Fantasy points in DraftKings 3 of the past 4 games and 5 of 8 overall. He also gets too many rushing TDs if you ask Forsett owners, Joe is basically the goal line back for the Ravens.
James White $3,000 DK/$6,000 FDraft/N/A FD
With Dion Lewis out for the season James White should be tapped to become the Pats passing down back and should see plenty of receptions. Monitor this to make sure Bolden doesn’t get the job but in week Lewis missed White was active and used a decent bit. White is not the playmaker with the ball that Lewis was but at the minimum on the sites he is listed on he should reach value.
Shane Vereen $4,300 DK/$8,000 FDraft/$5,800 FD
I expect this to be one of the higher scoring games of the day and Shane Vereen should see some targets in this one. Bill Belichick normally takes away the thing you do best so Vereen could be in for a bigger game than usual. Even if the Giants get behind in this one Vereen should be in the backfield most of the game. In a week where value at Running Back is hard to find he may be one of the safer guys.
Ryan Mathews $3,500 DK/$6,800 FDraft/$5,600 FD
Demarco Murray has finally started to live up to his preseason predictions but Ryan Mathews has quietly been getting it done with a small amount of opportunity. He has had double digits in fantasy points in 3 of the last 4 games on about 10 touches a game. I’ve been saying since the season started that he is the more natural fit for what the Eagles do but unless Murray gets hurt he will have to keep being the best backup in the league now that DeAngelo Williams is starting. I would recommend him only as a gpp play this week though.
Davante Adams $4,200 DK/$8,800 FDraft/$5,400 FD
One of the most hyped guys of the preseason was Davante Adams. He was going to be the #2 guy in the best passing attack in football…and then James Jones couldn’t make an NFL roster so Aaron Rodgers did a discount double check and got Jones back on the team. Between Jones hogging TDs and a nagging injury Adams hasn’t been the force we had hoped. But last week he put together his best game of the season leading the team in catches and finishing 2nd in targets. Rodgers should have no problem carving up the Lions secondary in this one and I predict it will be Adams best game of the season. He might not be this cheap again the rest of the way.
Kamar Aiken $4,500 DK/$9,000 FDraft/$5,400 FD
With Steve Smith out for the year Kamar Aiken will once again become the number 1 guy in Baltimore and this time we have a half season to see what he can do. In his last game against an admittedly bad Chargers secondary he hauled in 6 catches on 6 targets. His targets should increase now along with Chris Givens who I will throw in this paragraph because he is only $3,200 on DK. I like Aiken better for cash games and Givens as a very low owned guy in gpps. Aiken has had double digits in 5 games this season so he’s not a bad 3rd or 4th receiver and could see a 20 point game here.
Dorial Green-Beckham $3,200 DK/$6,300 FDraft/$5,200 FD
I’ve been patiently waiting for Dorial Green-Beckham to get more playing time. With Kendall Wright out last week he saw 10 targets but only 5 catches for 77 yards. His snaps played have been improving in recent weeks so he could be just on the verge of a breakout game. He has the frame to be one of the better red zone threats in the league. Once Mariota and DGB get on the same page it could be trouble for the rest of the AFC South, although anything with a pulse is basically a problem for that division.
Personally I’m gonna whip my Gronk out this week and show it to everybody but if you want to go a little cheaper some guys I like are Jordan Reed, Big Game Gary Barnidge Tha Gawd, Richard Rodgers, and Kyle Rudolph.
That’s it for me this week. Don’t forget to thank Adam Wagner for his service for Veterans Day and good luck to him and Al Walsh at the DFS Players Conference which I’m sure is going to have a little different flavor to it now. Eric Schneiderman should hae some serious heel heat there. Until next week, I’m your Sweet Fantasy.
New York players be sure to try FantasyDraft.com If this scumbag Attorney General gets his way you may still be able to play on FantasyDraft.com! Check them out.