Sweet Fantasy – DFS Value Picks: Week 4

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Chris Sweet: Senior Fantasy Sports Analyst – The Wagner Wire

 

Welcome back TWW Nation! We’ve made it through 3 weeks of crazy fantasy football action. Hopefully most of you are still doing well after the insane week we just had. I know most of you probably don’t want me to bring him up but I’m gonna talk about one of my misses from last week. Nick Foles or He who shall not be named by The Wagner Wire staff. I bring him up because I had him in a lot of lineups last week, and guess what?  I cashed in all of those lineups because I was able to use the money I saved on QB for a pricey threesome of Antonio Brown, Jamaal Charles, and Randall Cobb. I don’t want to dwell on last week though because we know by now the great thing about DFS is that every week is a new season and new opportunity for you to count the greenbacks on Tuesday morning. I have avoided using games where weather may be a factor although I love Karlos Williams this week. Check the weather Sunday Morning before using guys from the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Before I get to this week I want to mention one of our great sponsors, FantasyDraft.com. The salaries are a little different but it’s easy to get the hang of. The best feature in my opinion is that you get 2 flex spots so you can go heavy at WR or if you think there’s value to be had at RB or TE you can do that too. Click the banner up top to sign up and get a special bonus for using The Wagner Wire. Starting this week I will include values for FantasyDraft.com after DraftKings and FanDuel. On to this weeks values.

 

Quarterbacks

 

Colin Kaepernick – $5500 DK $7500 FD $11,100 FantasyDraft.com

Benny Sieu - USAToday Sports
Benny Sieu – USAToday Sports

I’m gonna start off this week with my super sleeper for Big Tournaments. I’m going with a big contrarian play here at QB and not just because the 49ers are 9.5 point underdogs at home. Colin Kaepernick has had the best games of his career against the Green Bay Packers. The 49ers as a team are not super talented and to say Kaepernick has been inconsistent would be an understatement but I have a big hunch that he is going to have a much bigger game than people expect this Sunday.

 

Ryan Mallett – $5000 DK $6300 FD $10,200 FantasyDraft.com

 Photo: Jon Shapley, Staff
Photo: Jon Shapley, Staff

Ryan Mallett is a minimum priced QB on DraftKings and he has performed like one this season. Against Atlanta he has the opportunity to look better than average, at least his stats do. The Falcons are giving up almost 300 yards per game in the air so far. Grab Mallett and stack him with Nuke Hopkins this week. His teammates might hate him but you won’t after this week.

 

Brandon Weeden – $5100 DK $6400 FD $10,500 FantasyDraft.com

Eric Hartline - USAToday Sports
Eric Hartline – USAToday Sports

Nobody is going to be excited about playing Brandon Weeden in their lineups and Derek Carr is a much safer pick for the price but I did not include Carr because of his high ownership. Brandon Weeden is likely to be low owned in all formats and against a very generous Rob Ryan defense he may show the arm strength that made him a first round pick. It’s a total wild card play and one that may be ill advised but you need to play some long shots to have a chance at the pot of gold at the end of the Rainbow.

 

Running Backs

 

Frank Gore – $4700 DK $7300 FD $9500 FantasyDraft.com

Associated Press
Associated Press

The elder statesman of NFL RBs had some people worried after the first two games but he showed last week that he’s an effective workhorse back still in the right situation. This week against Jacksonville should be another great opportunity to roll him out and his price is nice and low. If Andrew Luck ends up sitting out lock Gore in to all your lineups Cash and Tournaments alike.

 

Lance Dunbar – $3600 DK $5600 FD $6800 FantasyDraft.com

Getty Images
Getty Images

Two other Running Backs stole the headlines in the Cowboys and Falcons game last week but Lance Dunbar quietly had 10 receptions for 100 yards. He now has 21 catches in 3 games. On DraftKings he’s a great weekly play for all formats. If Brandon Weeden continues checking down he will continue to have huge days.

 

Melvin Gordon – $4900 DK $6800 FD $9400 FantasyDraft.com

Orlando Ramirez - USAToday Sports
Orlando Ramirez – USAToday Sports

The Fantasy World has been waiting for Melvin Gordon to break out and he has been close. Some of it has been Danny Woodhead having a big role, some of it has been Mike McCoy hating Fantasy Owners but this week may be the perfect storm for Melvin. The O-Line is admittedly very banged up but this could be a low scoring game and the Browns Run D is not good. Take a shot on Flash this week, he’s not gonna stay this cheap.

 

Wide Receivers

 

Ted Ginn Jr. – $3400 DK $5500 FD $7100 FantasyDraft.com

USA Today Sports Images
USA Today Sports Images

Cam Newton’s targets are less than appetizing and Greg Olsen is the clear Number 1 option here but Ted Ginn Jr. has quietly become the Number 1 WR in Carolina. He still has big play ability and has become a steady Wide Receiver late in his career. The match up against the 26th WR defense this weekend makes him a strong gpp play at his price.

 

Stevie Johnson – $4400 DK $5800 FD $9000 FantasyDraft.com

(K.C. Alfred/San Diego Union-Tribune/TNS)
(K.C. Alfred/San Diego Union-Tribune/TNS)

Stevie Johnson could see a lot of targets on Sunday as the TE situation is still muddy in San Diego. Keenan Allen has been a great WR1 for the Bolts so far but Stevie has been a consistent target too through 3 weeks. The absence of Gates and possibly Green could have him seeing the ball early and often especially if Haden has any success with Allen.

 

Anquan Boldin – $4800 DK $7000 FD $9600 FantasyDraft.com

Rick Wood
Rick Wood

With Vernon Davis out for Sundays game and Torrey Smith having trouble getting looks I expect Anquan Boldin to see a lot of targets against Green Bay. He is still one of the toughest Wide Receivers in the league and I see him being a big factor this week. Stack him with Kap for a low owned tournament combo and hope they repeat what they did in Week 1 of 2013.

 

Tight Ends

 

 

Kyle Rudolph – $3200 DK $5000 FD $7000 FantasyDraft.com

FanSided.com
FanSided.com

Tight End is without it’s biggest star this week in Gronk so options are a little less easy. I think you should pay up for Graham or Olsen or you could take a shot on Kyle Rudolph. Teddy Bridgewater is without a few of his targets this week and could target Rudolph more than normal. He’s a good tournament play and Denver is middle of the pack against the TE. He’s the only TE I’m listing here because the rest are all about the same. If the weather hold out in Buffalo then Charles Clay is an intriguing play as well.

 

That’s it for this week’s values. Catch me on The Big 3 DFS Morning Show on YouTube at 11:00 am EST for all your last minute updates and strategy. Good Luck everyone and as always I’m your Sweet Fantasy.

Subscribe to thewagnerwire.com if you haven’t already. Follow me on Twitter @thechrissweet and challenge me on DraftKings csweet1980

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